Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Platformer Simulation game?

Simulation + Puzzle Platformer

Of 216 developers who shipped a Puzzle Platformer Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 181 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $59. Revenue is flat on the market; 181 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 181 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 216
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $748 → $838 → $955 → $180 → $898 → $600 (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 216
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $29k (exactly $29,341)
Developers, 2 yr 216
Released games 589
Announced 181
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Puzzle Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 7,819 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 120 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 181 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Human Fall Flat older $19.99 174,835 94% 5.2M $105M (exactly $104,848,549) No Brakes Games
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
WHAT THE GOLF? older $19.99 4,324 93% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,103) Triband
Song of Nunu: A League of Legends Story older $29.99 2,742 94% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,977) Tequila Works
Moncage older $14.99 5,127 92% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,612) Optillusion
Heavenly Bodies older $19.99 3,741 95% 112k $2.2M (exactly $2,243,478) 2pt Interactive
Train Valley 2 older $14.99 2,356 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,493) Alexey Davydov, Sergey Dvoynikov, Timof… (Alexey Davydov, Sergey Dvoynikov, Timofey Shargorodskiy, Flazm)
Wordle older $30.62 1,147 80% 34k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,634) PreoNus Games
I am an Air Traffic Controller 4 older $59.99 566 79% 17k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,630) TechnoBrain
Vanity Fair: The Pursuit older $6.99 4,014 87% 120k $842k (exactly $841,736) 木焱工作室
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Carry The Glass $4.99 2,839 75% 85k $425k (exactly $424,998) Çağatay Demir, Enes Kaplan
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time $10.99 986 88% 30k $325k (exactly $325,084) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition $6.99 733 66% 22k $154k (exactly $153,710) Evil Boobs Cult
Moving Houses $13.99 232 72% 7.0k $97k (exactly $97,370) Gordon Little
Chained Wheels $4.99 619 69% 19k $93k (exactly $92,664) Karga Games
Human Fall Flat VR $12.99 128 47% 3.8k $50k (exactly $49,882) No Brakes Games
Cycle of Corruption $14.99 84 94% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Kredyn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.