Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Platformer Simulation game?

Simulation + Platformer

Of 281 developers who shipped a Platformer Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 235 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 235 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 235 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 281
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $599 → $2.2k → $838 → $599 → $1.7k → $599 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 281
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,649)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $58,773)
Developers, 2 yr 281
Released games 838
Announced 235
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, 3D Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 32,631 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $630, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 179 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 235 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch older $15.99 6,660 86% 200k $3.2M (exactly $3,194,802) TiGames
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
I Am Fish older $19.99 2,917 75% 88k $1.7M (exactly $1,749,325) Bossa Studios
Trials Fusion™ older $19.99 2,285 66% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,370,314) RedLynx, in collaboration with Ubisoft… (RedLynx, in collaboration with Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Kiev)
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
Yooka-Replaylee $29.99 1,045 92% 31k $940k (exactly $940,186) Playtonic Games
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon $14.99 1,397 70% 42k $628k (exactly $628,231) Art Thieves
Carry The Glass $4.99 2,839 75% 85k $425k (exactly $424,998) Çağatay Demir, Enes Kaplan
Egging On $14.99 747 74% 22k $336k (exactly $335,926) Egobounds
Light Up The Town $14.99 715 95% 21k $322k (exactly $321,536) Meadow Studios
Idols of Ash $2.99 3,352 97% 101k $301k (exactly $300,674) Leafy Games
3dSen PC $14.99 524 91% 16k $236k (exactly $235,643) Geod Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.