Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Sports

Of 182 developers who shipped a Sports Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 185 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 185 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 185 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 182
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $3.2k → $3.6k → $4.5k → $5.4k → $2.7k → $3.5k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 182
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,187)
Top 5% $455k (exactly $454,647)
Developers, 2 yr 182
Released games 530
Announced 185
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Sports; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Physics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 85,044 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 104 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 185 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Session: Skate Sim older $39.99 13,460 83% 404k $16M (exactly $16,147,962) crea-ture Studios Inc.
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
Assetto Corsa Rally · EA $29.99 8,757 87% 263k $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673) Supernova Games Studios
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game $24.99 6,638 94% 199k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,509) MLMEDIA
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
Project Motor Racing $39.99 1,181 45% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) Straight4 Studios
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
PBA Pro Bowling 2026 $39.99 412 91% 12k $494k (exactly $494,276) FarSight Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.