Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Dynamic Narration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dynamic Narration Sports game?

Sports + Dynamic Narration

Only 17 developers shipped a Dynamic Narration Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Outpost Legends, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $1.1k. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 9 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×0.6 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 9 announced, ×0.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Dynamic Narration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $4.2k (still earning) → $100k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Dynamic Narration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,194)
Top 25% $97k (exactly $97,176)
Top 5% $101k (exactly $100,775)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 25
Announced 9
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 365% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dynamic Narration
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Dynamic Narration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Crafting
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dialogue Heavy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 512 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $97k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  3. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  4. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  5. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  6. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  8. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  9. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  11. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  12. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Outpost Legends $39.99 84 95% 2.5k $101k (exactly $100,775) OUT LLL
Ocean Rush $39.99 84 91% 2.5k $101k (exactly $100,775) riko
Run from the Cops! $39.99 83 92% 2.5k $100k (exactly $99,575) CAPITAL RUN
GEL RUN $39.99 83 89% 2.5k $100k (exactly $99,575) Kaloyan Stoyanov
Explosive Escape $39.99 81 86% 2.4k $97k (exactly $97,176) jakk o
Pro Show Jumping older $19.99 60 85% 1.8k $36k (exactly $35,982) PSJ Studios
Believr Pro Wrestling · EA $14.99 25 72% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Believr Games
Clutch Legend: FPS Career Simulator $6.49 37 89% 1.1k $7.2k (exactly $7,204) Federico Mariotti
Ironblood · EA $19.99 7 71% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Jack Wilds
Angel Club $6.99 20 65% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) イルカのヒレ
Dynasty! $14.99 8 87% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) newberry94005

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.