Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Sports game?

Sports + Crafting

Of 24 developers who shipped a Crafting Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $37k, ×59 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.3k. Revenue is up 3760% on the market; 26 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 58.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 3760% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30 → $143k → $13k → $2.8k → $100k → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,260)
Median $37k (exactly $36,863)
Top 25% $100k (exactly $99,575)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $180,260)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 62
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3760% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Crafting; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dialogue Heavy, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,114 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $37k, 1 in 4 over $99k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 6 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  3. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  4. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  5. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  6. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  8. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  9. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  11. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  12. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Horse Tales: Emerald Valley Ranch older $29.99 874 62% 26k $786k (exactly $786,338) Aesir Interactive
Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball older $9.99 2,258 91% 68k $677k (exactly $676,723) Erik Asmussen
Underground Garage $14.99 646 63% 19k $291k (exactly $290,506) BeardedBrothers.games
BREAK ARTS III $17.99 334 80% 10k $180k (exactly $180,260) MercuryStudio
Ultimate Racing 2D 2 older $9.99 485 92% 15k $145k (exactly $145,354) Applimazing
Offroad Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 238 71% 7.1k $143k (exactly $142,729) Image Power S.A., GameFormatic S.A.
Bombunter $39.99 106 89% 3.2k $127k (exactly $127,168) Clava STOVE
Speed Vortex $39.99 89 92% 2.7k $107k (exactly $106,773) Alambi
Run from the Cops! $39.99 83 92% 2.5k $100k (exactly $99,575) CAPITAL RUN
GEL RUN $39.99 83 89% 2.5k $100k (exactly $99,575) Kaloyan Stoyanov
CFS (Chinese Football Simulator) $9.99 290 67% 8.7k $87k (exactly $86,913) 悟空实验室
Sailaway III $15.99 158 68% 4.7k $76k (exactly $75,793) Orbcreation BV
Tobiano · EA $24.99 81 79% 2.4k $61k (exactly $60,726) Ida Meyer
Puttler $7.99 244 95% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,487) Bean Juice Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.