Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy RPG Sports game?

Sports + Strategy RPG

Of 23 developers who shipped a Strategy RPG Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.2k. Revenue is flat on the market; 26 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 26 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $598 → $3.0k → $1.2k → $7.2k → $5.1k → $8.8k → $4.7k (still earning) → $330 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,581)
Top 5% $116k (exactly $115,984)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 92
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Strategy RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,592 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  4. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  5. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  6. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  8. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  9. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  11. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  12. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Punch Club 2: Fast Forward 2023 · $2.3M Out of the Park Baseball 26 2025 · $1.2M Qvadriga 2014 · $175k Age of Gladiators 2016 · $170k Age of Gladiators II: Rome 2018 · $163k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Qvadriga older $19.99 291 84% 8.7k $175k (exactly $174,513) Turnopia
Age of Gladiators older $7.99 709 77% 21k $170k (exactly $169,947) Creative Storm Entertainment
Age of Gladiators II: Rome older $19.99 272 66% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) Creative Storm Entertainment
Esports History $9.99 387 77% 12k $116k (exactly $115,984) Quantum Gear Studios
Rugby Union Team Manager 4 older $39.99 60 70% 1.8k $72k (exactly $71,982) Alternative Software Ltd
Dungeon Deathball older $11.99 193 95% 5.8k $69k (exactly $69,422) Matt Glanville
Desta: The Memories Between older $16.99 124 78% 3.7k $63k (exactly $63,203) ustwo games
Chessaria: The Tactical Adventure (Chess) older $19.99 99 74% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Pixel Wizards
Tennis Manager 26 $39.99 46 73% 1.4k $55k (exactly $55,186) Rebound
Tennis Manager 25 $19.99 76 68% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Rebound
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
Uchi No Heya! $9.99 39 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) James West
Duck Life 4 Classic $4.99 64 90% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Wix Games
Punch to Glory $6.99 42 92% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Musa GUNGOR
Gridiron Masters '98 · EA $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Software98
Road to Omaha: College Baseball Dynasty $19.99 13 69% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Brent Lane

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.