Do I ship it?

Games › Sports › Sports + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Sports game?

Sports + LGBTQ+

Only 14 developers shipped an LGBTQ+ Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, NBA 2K26, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $420. Revenue is up 670% on the market; 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 670% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $47k → $898 → $418 → $3.6k (still earning) → $5.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 5% $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 58
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 670% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Character Customization, Co-op
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 31,822 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $7.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  9. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  11. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  12. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NBA 2K26 2025 · $54M WWE 2K25 2025 · $7.4M GRID Legends 2022 · $5.3M NBA 2K27 2026 · $3.6M Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions 2024 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
GRID Legends older $59.99 2,952 76% 89k $5.3M (exactly $5,312,714) Codemasters
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
Mount Your Friends older $4.99 5,130 95% 154k $768k (exactly $767,961) Stegersaurus Software Inc.
AFL 23 older $59.99 370 45% 11k $666k (exactly $665,889) Big Ant Studios
Super Indie Karts · EA older $19.99 453 80% 14k $272k (exactly $271,664) One Legged Seagull
Sephonie older $19.99 217 95% 6.5k $130k (exactly $130,135) Melos Han-Tani, Marina Kittaka
Femboy Futa Mania 🌶️ $14.99 174 71% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Lewd Star
FUTA FIGHT & FUCK 🥊 $14.99 115 92% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) BanzaiProject
Shoe it All! $7.99 21 100% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Amberbite
SBcatfight game $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) DoNyan
Donlan Men's Athletic Academy: Before the Line $7.99 15 73% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) ZY_CLASH
Boobs & Boxing $4.99 23 91% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) Rodrigo Piedras
Savage Arena: Dead Ball Zone $5.99 5 80% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Rage Software, Jordan Freeman Group

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.