Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Physics
Should I ship a Physics Third-Person Shooter?
Third-Person Shooter + Physics
Of 81 developers who shipped a Physics Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 172 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $960, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 172 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 350% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $958 (exactly $958) |
| Top 25% | $6.0k (exactly $5,998) |
| Top 5% | $451k (exactly $450,570) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 81 |
| Released games | 249 |
| Announced | 172 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Third-Person Shooter
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Third-Person Shooter, Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 13,327 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 172 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RhythmStrong odds
- + WesternFair
- + CollectathonLong shot
- + Time ManagementLong shot
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Creature CollectorPoor odds
- + DinosaursPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Level EditorPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
Comparable games
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020 · $108M 
Just Cause™ 3 2015 · $62M 
Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M 
Just Cause 2 2010 · $18M 
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator 2023 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
| | Just Cause™ 3 | older | $19.99 | 104,140 85% | 3.1M | $62M (exactly $62,452,758) | Avalanche Studios |
| | Just Cause 4 Reloaded | older | $39.64 | 23,358 63% | 701k | $28M (exactly $27,777,334) | Avalanche Studios |
| | Just Cause 2 | older | $14.99 | 41,019 90% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,446,244) | Avalanche Studios |
| | Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator | older | $24.99 | 16,166 80% | 485k | $12M (exactly $12,119,650) | Nils Jakrins |
 | Orcs Must Die! 3 | older | $29.99 | 10,930 85% | 328k | $9.8M (exactly $9,833,721) | Robot Entertainment |
 | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
 | Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap | $29.99 | 4,053 69% | 122k | $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) | Robot Entertainment | |
 | STAR WARS™: The Force Unleashed™ II | older | $19.99 | 5,854 63% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,510,644) | Aspyr Studios |
 | POPUCOM | $19.99 | 3,432 87% | 103k | $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) | Hypergryph | |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | Brickadia | · EA | $19.99 | 1,269 81% | 38k | $761k (exactly $761,019) | Brickadia, LLC |
 | Trench Tales | · EA | $24.99 | 601 69% | 18k | $451k (exactly $450,570) | Talking Drums |
 | Emergency Call - The Firefighting Simulation 3 | · EA | $24.99 | 370 71% | 11k | $277k (exactly $277,389) | Crenetic GmbH Studios |
 | Birds of War | $9.99 | 439 87% | 13k | $132k (exactly $131,568) | HexNest Games | |
 | BeastLink | · EA | $19.99 | 187 45% | 5.6k | $112k (exactly $112,144) | Grove Street Games |
 | Queen's Loyalty | $13.99 | 258 83% | 7.7k | $108k (exactly $108,283) | eTIRUe | |
 | Last Man Sitting | $9.99 | 357 77% | 11k | $107k (exactly $106,993) | DoubleMoose Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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