Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Perma Death

Of 24 developers who shipped a Perma Death Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 38 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $478 → $4.6k → $2.9k → $4.2k → $449 → $150 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Top 5% $43k (exactly $43,171)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 63
Announced 38
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Looter Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 554 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $43k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Bad Rats: the Rats' Revenge older $1.99 7,062 77% 212k $422k (exactly $421,601) Invent4 Entertainment
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD
Holomento · EA older $19.99 155 72% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) Sean Weech
Into The Haze · EA older $14.99 124 55% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) MSOFT
Die After Sunset older $19.99 80 62% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) Playstark
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
The Left Behind $10.99 116 23% 3.5k $38k (exactly $38,245) Extrude
Ice Station Z older $4.99 185 75% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,694) Wobbly Tooth
Dread Protocol · EA $7.99 24 83% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) Meat Lab
Alone in the Stars: Survivor $6.99 23 86% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) J6 Games
Comet Rogue $4.99 28 96% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Antique Gear Games
Night of the Dead Simulator $7.99 12 50% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Unknown People Lab
Rogue Runner $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) 42nd Machine
City 33 $15.99 3 0% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) ebt studios
Horde Together · EA $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Fluffers Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.