Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Party Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Party Game Simulation game?

Simulation + Party Game

Of 118 developers who shipped a Party Game Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 268 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×297 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 268 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 268 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Party Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 118
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $5.4k → $5.2k → $898 → $1.2k (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Party Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 118
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $5.2k (exactly $5,240)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,770)
Developers, 2 yr 118
Released games 176
Announced 268
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 585% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Party Game
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Party Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Online Co-Op, PvP, Action
Price point
$5.49 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.49.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 10,594 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $480, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 268 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes older $14.99 14,331 97% 430k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,651) Steel Crate Games
Ale & Tale Tavern older $14.99 8,692 88% 261k $3.9M (exactly $3,908,792) Scienart Games
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
Backyard Baseball $39.99 1,210 80% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,637) Mega Cat Studios
SpyParty · EA older $24.99 1,140 77% 34k $855k (exactly $854,658) Chris Hecker, John Cimino
IRMÃO Grande & Brasileiro 2 older $19.99 1,392 97% 42k $835k (exactly $834,782) Virgula Leal
Guilty as Sock! $5.50 4,836 89% 145k $798k (exactly $797,940) Demon Max
Mount Your Friends older $4.99 5,130 95% 154k $768k (exactly $767,961) Stegersaurus Software Inc.
Climber Animals: Together older $3.99 6,014 73% 180k $720k (exactly $719,876) Devotion Interactive
Football Simulator · EA older $19.99 896 79% 27k $537k (exactly $537,331) Refactor Games
Walk of Life $19.99 888 94% 27k $533k (exactly $532,534) Porcelain Fortress
The House Always Wins $12.99 866 85% 26k $337k (exactly $337,480) Toxic Studio
Youtubers Life 3 $19.99 468 50% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) UPLAY Online
Bogos Binted? $5.49 1,134 91% 34k $187k (exactly $186,770) underbadger
Motion Soccer PRO $19.99 223 79% 6.7k $134k (exactly $133,733) Ivanovich Games
Choppy Cuts $16.99 261 75% 7.8k $133k (exactly $133,032) Moco Studios I
Airport Security Sucks! $7.99 458 85% 14k $110k (exactly $109,783) JakeHub, Metater
Abra-Cooking-Dabra $12.99 250 75% 7.5k $97k (exactly $97,425) Door 407

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.