Do I ship it?

GamesOutbreak SimOutbreak Sim + Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Walking Simulator?

Outbreak Sim + Walking Simulator

Only 11 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim Walking Simulator in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MOLDRISE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Outbreak Sim + Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $150 → $1.3k
Outcomes for Outbreak Sim + Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,957)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $174,814)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 25
Announced 11
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Outbreak Sim, Walking Simulator
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 696 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Outbreak Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RTSFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  2. + ZombiesFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 49 announced
  3. + Real Time TacticsFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  5. + Sci-fiLong shot15 devs · median $270 · 20 announced
  6. + City BuilderPoor odds10 devs · median $16k · 16 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 30 announced
  8. + ManagementPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 45 announced
  9. + Resource ManagementPoor odds24 devs · median $10k · 43 announced
  10. + Life SimPoor odds16 devs · median $6.1k · 26 announced
  11. + Time ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds19 devs · median $4.0k · 28 announced

All 41 pairs on the Outbreak Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
MOLDRISE $11.99 486 96% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Raffaele Picca
SLEEP AWAKE $29.99 164 71% 4.9k $148k (exactly $147,551) EYES OUT, LLC.
Baby Blues Nightmares - Toddler Horror Game older $12.99 93 91% 2.8k $36k (exactly $36,242) Steelkrill Studio
The Backrooms Project · EA older $9.99 106 63% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) 3AM Studios
The Backrooms Footage · EA older $7.99 71 66% 2.1k $17k (exactly $17,019) Untold Backrooms Stories
Last Generation: Survival older $19.99 20 50% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Furious Dogs
2番線 | Nibansen older $4.99 66 80% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) MFC STUDIO
Backrooms: Partygoers $11.99 11 90% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Mascot Bro Studio
3番線 | Sanbansen older $4.99 24 87% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) MFC STUDIO, KOSEI YASUDA
Evil World HOPSCA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) XU RENYU
Augmented Fear $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) OneFurInTheBox
Get Clucked $2.99 15 93% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) ThatCarrotFella
Nude By Night $4.99 4 0% 120 $599 (exactly $599) NX-Fusion Games
PROMIZED LAND: Outer Town 2025 $2.99 5 60% 150 $449 (exactly $449) PotaZOM, KRAKATOA STUDIOS
Vanishing In The Island Halphéra $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) Soghoxal
Gaslighters $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Of Passage

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.