Do I ship it?

Games › Outbreak Sim › Outbreak Sim + Time Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Management Outbreak Sim?

Outbreak Sim + Time Management

Only 12 developers shipped a Time Management Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Survival Log, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×9.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×1880 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Outbreak Sim + Time Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $540k → $359 (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Outbreak Sim + Time Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,313)
Top 25% $249k (exactly $248,751)
Top 5% $893k (exactly $893,157)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 25
Announced 19
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Time Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Outbreak Sim, Time Management
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 81% positive over 4,039 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 19 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Outbreak Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RTSFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  2. + ZombiesFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 49 announced
  3. + Real Time TacticsFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  6. + Sci-fiLong shot15 devs · median $270 · 20 announced
  7. + City BuilderPoor odds10 devs · median $16k · 16 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 30 announced
  9. + ManagementPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 45 announced
  10. + Resource ManagementPoor odds24 devs · median $10k · 43 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds16 devs · median $6.1k · 26 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds19 devs · median $4.0k · 28 announced

All 41 pairs on the Outbreak Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M Survival Log 2026 · $893k Galacticare 2024 · $540k Zombie Cure Lab 2025 · $295k CURE - A Hospital Simulator 2025 · EA · $249k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
Galacticare older $29.99 600 85% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) Brightrock Games
Zombie Cure Lab $24.99 393 65% 12k $295k (exactly $294,632) Thera Bytes GmbH
CURE - A Hospital Simulator · EA $9.99 830 86% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Sentinel Games
Undead Inc. older $19.99 158 27% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Rightsized Games
中国战疫 older $16.99 64 76% 1.9k $33k (exactly $32,621) 不吃蛋黄
Post-Apo Builder $9.99 54 37% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Septarian Games
Alarm112: Fire Unit $14.99 23 73% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Control Room Labs
Biletide $5.99 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Formic Games
Centre 18 · EA $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Lucas
Lord Of Anatolia $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Mustafa Aykut Karacan
THE BEST INVESTOR $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) THE FRENCH GRINDER
Organism Detected $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Yulari Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.