Do I ship it?

Games › Management › Management + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Management game?

Management + Outbreak Sim

Of 26 developers who shipped an Outbreak Sim Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1205 the market median. Revenue is up 605% on the market; 45 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 605% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $540k → $16k → $122k → $2.4k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $10k (exactly $10,343)
Top 25% $122k (exactly $122,016)
Top 5% $757k (exactly $757,042)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 60
Announced 45
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 605% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management, Outbreak Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Resource Management, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 7,011 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M 60 Seconds! Reatomized 2019 · $5.5M 60 Seconds! 2015 · $2.8M Bio Inc. Redemption 2018 · $1.2M 60 Parsecs! 2018 · $992k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
Bio Inc. Redemption older $12.99 3,051 87% 92k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,975) DryGin Studios
60 Parsecs! older $9.99 3,310 90% 99k $992k (exactly $992,007) Robot Gentleman
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville older $14.99 1,486 86% 45k $668k (exactly $668,254) Northway Games, Sarah Northway
Galacticare older $29.99 600 85% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) Brightrock Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Zombie Cure Lab $24.99 393 65% 12k $295k (exactly $294,632) Thera Bytes GmbH
CURE - A Hospital Simulator · EA $9.99 830 86% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Sentinel Games
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Execute $5.99 679 91% 20k $122k (exactly $122,016) Payne Robinson
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
ZOMBUTCHER: Monster Business Simulator $12.99 135 69% 4.1k $53k (exactly $52,610) ODIUS
Genesis of a Small God $17.99 61 80% 1.8k $33k (exactly $32,922) Pierre Nury

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.