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Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Sandbox?
Sandbox + Outbreak Sim
Only 19 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dread Dawn, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2018 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 28 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.0k (exactly $3,957) |
| Top 25% | $103k (exactly $103,431) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 57 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Outbreak Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Outbreak Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Management, Simulation
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 3,755 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Plague Inc: Evolved 2016 · $27M 
Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M 
Dread Dawn 2024 · $1.3M 
ZED ZONE 2023 · EA · $1.3M 
Bio Inc. Redemption 2018 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Plague Inc: Evolved | older | $14.99 | 59,205 94% | 1.8M | $27M (exactly $26,624,488) | Ndemic Creations |
| | Infection Free Zone | · EA older | $24.99 | 16,568 80% | 497k | $12M (exactly $12,421,030) | Jutsu Games |
| | Dread Dawn | $19.99 | 2,113 71% | 63k | $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) | Kioop | |
| | ZED ZONE | · EA older | $11.99 | 3,506 81% | 105k | $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) | Leven Liu |
| | Bio Inc. Redemption | older | $12.99 | 3,051 87% | 92k | $1.2M (exactly $1,188,975) | DryGin Studios |
 | Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville | older | $14.99 | 1,486 86% | 45k | $668k (exactly $668,254) | Northway Games, Sarah Northway |
 | Project L33T: Founders Edition | $19.99 | 525 47% | 16k | $315k (exactly $314,842) | Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games | |
 | Zombie Cure Lab | $24.99 | 393 65% | 12k | $295k (exactly $294,632) | Thera Bytes GmbH | |
 | Mad Tower Tycoon | older | $14.99 | 413 77% | 12k | $186k (exactly $185,726) | Eggcode |
 | Extinction Day | $19.99 | 206 74% | 6.2k | $124k (exactly $123,538) | DryGin Studios | |
 | Welcome Back, Commander | $14.99 | 230 80% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $103,431) | S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L. | |
 | Genesis of a Small God | $17.99 | 61 80% | 1.8k | $33k (exactly $32,922) | Pierre Nury | |
 | Colonies of The Remnant | · EA | $13.99 | 71 7% | 2.1k | $30k (exactly $29,799) | Cat Soul Studios |
 | Embers of the Night | $8.99 | 91 73% | 2.7k | $25k (exactly $24,543) | 巨浪游戏 | |
 | Post-Apo Builder | $9.99 | 54 37% | 1.6k | $16k (exactly $16,184) | Septarian Games | |
 | Virus Lab | $11.99 | 11 0% | 330 | $4.0k (exactly $3,957) | Reset Games Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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