Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Outbreak Sim

Only 12 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Calyx, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 14 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,184)
Top 5% $353k (exactly $353,109)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 34
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Outbreak Sim
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 798 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  3. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  4. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  5. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  9. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  10. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds33 devs · median $6.4k · 59 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Perfect Heist older $4.99 398 76% 12k $60k (exactly $59,581) yeswecamp
Z-Collapse older $12.99 87 73% 2.6k $34k (exactly $33,904) Pok&Co
Rebirth evolution older $8.99 125 61% 3.8k $34k (exactly $33,712) 异界游网络科技
Zombie Party 丧尸派对 older $5.99 140 77% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) Joychasing Games
Post-Apo Builder $9.99 54 37% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Septarian Games
Last Generation: Survival older $19.99 20 50% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Furious Dogs
Biletide $5.99 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Formic Games
Supreme Ruler Global Outbreak $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) BattleGoat Studios
Sandbox Apocalypse · EA $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) 7Druids GmbH
Dead Night Highway $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Mr. Pink
Centre 18 · EA $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Lucas
Manifest369 power defence · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) ManifestStudios
THE BEST INVESTOR $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) THE FRENCH GRINDER

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.