Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim RTS?

RTS + Outbreak Sim

Only 16 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Calyx, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $780. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 14 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $899 → $16k → $2.4k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $779 (exactly $779)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,163)
Top 5% $353k (exactly $353,109)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 14
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Outbreak Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action RTS, Management, Real-Time with Pause
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,143 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  3. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  4. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  5. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  6. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  7. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  10. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds23 devs · median $22k · 48 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M Bio Inc. Redemption 2018 · $1.2M ICBM 2020 · $993k Calyx 2026 · EA · $353k Extinction Day 2026 · $124k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Bio Inc. Redemption older $12.99 3,051 87% 92k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,975) DryGin Studios
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Quarantineer older $9.99 307 80% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) Papaonn
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
COVID: The Outbreak older $13.99 85 70% 2.6k $36k (exactly $35,674) Jujubee S.A.
Z-Collapse older $12.99 87 73% 2.6k $34k (exactly $33,904) Pok&Co
Post-Apo Builder $9.99 54 37% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Septarian Games
Zombie God · EA $11.79 14 92% 420 $5.0k (exactly $4,952) Codematik
Biletide $5.99 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Formic Games
Propa. $7.99 11 54% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Contagio Games
Apocalypse Factory · EA $9.99 8 50% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Mind Leak
Supreme Ruler Global Outbreak $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) BattleGoat Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.