Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Base Building game?

Base Building + Outbreak Sim

Of 22 developers who shipped an Outbreak Sim Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×20 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×1422 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 30 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $34k → $540k → $33k → $13k → $2.4k (still earning) → $30k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $13k (exactly $12,529)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,163)
Top 5% $893k (exactly $893,157)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 44
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Outbreak Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Strategy, Survival
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 7,565 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M Dread Dawn 2024 · $1.3M ICBM 2020 · $993k Survival Log 2026 · $893k After Inc: Revival 2026 · $799k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville older $14.99 1,486 86% 45k $668k (exactly $668,254) Northway Games, Sarah Northway
Galacticare older $29.99 600 85% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) Brightrock Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Zombie Cure Lab $24.99 393 65% 12k $295k (exactly $294,632) Thera Bytes GmbH
Mad Tower Tycoon older $14.99 413 77% 12k $186k (exactly $185,726) Eggcode
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
Genesis of a Small God $17.99 61 80% 1.8k $33k (exactly $32,922) Pierre Nury
Colonies of The Remnant · EA $13.99 71 7% 2.1k $30k (exactly $29,799) Cat Soul Studios
Embers of the Night $8.99 91 73% 2.7k $25k (exactly $24,543) 巨浪游戏
Post-Apo Builder $9.99 54 37% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Septarian Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.