Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Life Sim?

Life Sim + Outbreak Sim

Only 16 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim Life Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Survival Log, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×1880 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 26 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Life Sim + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,090)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $52,610)
Top 5% $893k (exactly $893,157)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 37
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Outbreak Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 6,524 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 26 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
60 Parsecs! older $9.99 3,310 90% 99k $992k (exactly $992,007) Robot Gentleman
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
Politics The Game $9.99 2,526 95% 76k $757k (exactly $757,042) Simplicity Games
CURE - A Hospital Simulator · EA $9.99 830 86% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Sentinel Games
ZOMBUTCHER: Monster Business Simulator $12.99 135 69% 4.1k $53k (exactly $52,610) ODIUS
Parasite Infection older $7.99 140 77% 4.2k $34k (exactly $33,558) Light Dark Deviant
Genesis of a Small God $17.99 61 80% 1.8k $33k (exactly $32,922) Pierre Nury
Quarantine Zombies: Contamination $9.99 74 48% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Stones Games
SuperSorry $5.99 115 74% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,666) Sun Studio
Symptoms of Infection · EA $3.50 58 89% 1.7k $6.1k (exactly $6,090) ORB Research & Broadcasting
英雄荣光医院 $6.99 11 100% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Areas R
Apocalypse Cult Leader $14.99 5 40% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Noxurtica

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.