Do I ship it?

Games › Outbreak Sim › Outbreak Sim + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Outbreak Sim?

Outbreak Sim + Puzzle

Only 17 developers shipped a Puzzle Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MOLDRISE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 22 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 22 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Outbreak Sim + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $90 → $300 → $36k → $359 → $0 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Outbreak Sim + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,957)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $174,814)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 44
Announced 22
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Outbreak Sim, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 920 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Outbreak Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RTSFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  2. + ZombiesFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 49 announced
  3. + Real Time TacticsFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  6. + Sci-fiLong shot15 devs · median $270 · 20 announced
  7. + City BuilderPoor odds10 devs · median $16k · 16 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 30 announced
  9. + ManagementPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 45 announced
  10. + Resource ManagementPoor odds24 devs · median $10k · 43 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds16 devs · median $6.1k · 26 announced
  12. + Time ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced

All 41 pairs on the Outbreak Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MOLDRISE 2026 · $175k EVOTINCTION 2024 · $156k SLEEP AWAKE 2025 · $148k Lust Epidemic 18+ 2024 · $53k Baby Blues Nightmares - Toddler Horror Game 2024 · $36k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MOLDRISE $11.99 486 96% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Raffaele Picca
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
SLEEP AWAKE $29.99 164 71% 4.9k $148k (exactly $147,551) EYES OUT, LLC.
Lust Epidemic 18+ $9.99 176 66% 5.3k $53k (exactly $52,747) BanzaiProject
Baby Blues Nightmares - Toddler Horror Game older $12.99 93 91% 2.8k $36k (exactly $36,242) Steelkrill Studio
despatch: Entity Astray older $14.99 15 60% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) me.mento XR interactive AG
Symptoms of Infection · EA $3.50 58 89% 1.7k $6.1k (exactly $6,090) ORB Research & Broadcasting
Backrooms: Partygoers $11.99 11 90% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Mascot Bro Studio
Frozen Shelter older $3.56 33 66% 990 $3.5k (exactly $3,524) Aktamia, Admia
Augmented Fear $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) OneFurInTheBox
SNOTROCKET™ · EA $3.99 7 100% 210 $838 (exactly $838) Sunscorched Studios
Chalet $2.99 8 87% 240 $718 (exactly $718) Simply Fair Studios
Solvizz $6.99 2 0% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Oulda
Keyboard Simulator $3.99 3 66% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Arbothonas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.