Games › Outbreak Sim › Outbreak Sim + Psychological Horror
Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Outbreak Sim?
Outbreak Sim + Psychological Horror
Only 15 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, No, I'm not a Human, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $12M, ×25772 the market median. Revenue is up 600% on the market; 29 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $718 (exactly $718) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) |
| Top 25% | $122k (exactly $122,016) |
| Top 5% | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 35 |
| Announced | 29 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 600% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Outbreak Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Psychological Horror
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Outbreak Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Narrative
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 28,987 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Outbreak Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RTSFair
- + ZombiesFair
- + Real Time TacticsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Survival HorrorFair
- + Sci-fiLong shot
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + ManagementPoor odds
- + Resource ManagementPoor odds
- + Life SimPoor odds
- + Time ManagementPoor odds
Comparable games
No, I'm not a Human 2025 · $12M 
The Fabulous Fear Machine 2023 · $293k 
MOLDRISE 2026 · $175k 
SLEEP AWAKE 2025 · $148k 
Execute 2025 · $122k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | No, I'm not a Human | $14.99 | 27,222 93% | 817k | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) | Trioskaz | |
| | The Fabulous Fear Machine | older | $17.99 | 542 89% | 16k | $293k (exactly $292,517) | Fictiorama Studios |
| | MOLDRISE | $11.99 | 486 96% | 15k | $175k (exactly $174,814) | Raffaele Picca | |
| | SLEEP AWAKE | $29.99 | 164 71% | 4.9k | $148k (exactly $147,551) | EYES OUT, LLC. | |
| | Execute | $5.99 | 679 91% | 20k | $122k (exactly $122,016) | Payne Robinson | |
 | Survivor's Notes | $6.99 | 352 91% | 11k | $74k (exactly $73,814) | MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY | |
 | Baby Blues Nightmares - Toddler Horror Game | older | $12.99 | 93 91% | 2.8k | $36k (exactly $36,242) | Steelkrill Studio |
 | The Backrooms Project | · EA older | $9.99 | 106 63% | 3.2k | $32k (exactly $31,768) | 3AM Studios |
 | Outbreak | older | $9.99 | 103 66% | 3.1k | $31k (exactly $30,869) | Dead Drop Studios LLC |
 | The Backrooms Footage | · EA older | $7.99 | 71 66% | 2.1k | $17k (exactly $17,019) | Untold Backrooms Stories |
 | Symptoms of Infection | · EA | $3.50 | 58 89% | 1.7k | $6.1k (exactly $6,090) | ORB Research & Broadcasting |
 | Backrooms: Partygoers | $11.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $4.0k (exactly $3,957) | Mascot Bro Studio | |
 | Evil World HOPSCA | $12.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) | XU RENYU | |
 | Augmented Fear | $9.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) | OneFurInTheBox | |
 | The Long Winter: I Am Not an Animal | $7.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | Playnova |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.