Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Otome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Otome Simulation game?

Simulation + Otome

Of 69 developers who shipped an Otome Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×355 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 120 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 120 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Otome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $30k → $7.8k → $12k → $9.0k → $7.8k → $1.8k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Otome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,191)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,251)
Top 5% $223k (exactly $223,144)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 291
Announced 120
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Otome; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Visual Novel, Multiple Endings
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 3,364 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hatoful Boyfriend older $9.99 5,533 94% 166k $1.7M (exactly $1,658,240) Mediatonic, Hato Moa
BUSTAFELLOWS older $39.99 968 86% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,161,310) NIPPON CULTURAL BROADCASTING EXTEND INC.
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD))
Dandelion - Wishes brought to you - older $29.99 640 85% 19k $576k (exactly $575,808) Sujin Ri, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Som… (Sujin Ri, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Somi Lee, Sohyeon Jeon)
Nameless ~The one thing you must recall~ older $29.99 633 92% 19k $570k (exactly $569,510) Sujin Ri, Yunjeong Yun, Hyein Go, Minsu… (Sujin Ri, Yunjeong Yun, Hyein Go, Minsu Ock, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Sohyeon Jeon)
Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk older $29.99 600 84% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) IDEA FACTORY
Blood Code older $9.99 1,728 73% 52k $518k (exactly $517,882) ZiX Solutions, Weixi Studio
Folie Fatale older $5.99 2,608 86% 78k $469k (exactly $468,658) Kanmidoko (神海処)
Demonheart older $19.99 714 89% 21k $428k (exactly $428,186) Rolling Crown
Meiji Tokyo Renka Full Moon $59.99 196 91% 5.9k $353k (exactly $352,741) dramatic create
Heart Cage $20.99 363 97% 11k $229k (exactly $228,581) RiceLoveCoffee
INtLOVErt Game Club $39.99 186 96% 5.6k $223k (exactly $223,144) じょせふ
The Ethereal Dream $19.99 263 74% 7.9k $158k (exactly $157,721) 鸭子与葱制作组
Hypnosis Card 2 Happy Life $12.99 270 91% 8.1k $105k (exactly $105,219) Naku Kinoko
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
High Times $19.99 163 90% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Yangyang Mobile
lovebyte.exe · EA $11.99 253 96% 7.6k $91k (exactly $91,004) Nochi Studios
Demonheart: The Cursed Trial $24.99 115 90% 3.5k $86k (exactly $86,216) Rolling Crown

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.