Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + On-Rails Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an On-Rails Shooter Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + On-Rails Shooter

Only 10 developers shipped an On-Rails Shooter Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 閃攻機人アスラ - ASURA THE STRIKER -, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $7.5k against a market of $1.5k. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 530% on the market, 16 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + On-Rails Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $76k → $1.8k → $3.8k → $13k
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + On-Rails Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $3.8k (exactly $3,830)
Median $7.5k (exactly $7,497)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,986)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $65,206)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 42
Announced 16
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 530% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
On-Rails Shooter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, On-Rails Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 382 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $7.5k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $65k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Say No! More older $14.99 1,766 91% 53k $794k (exactly $794,170) Studio Fizbin
Mirage Feathers older $4.99 2,566 98% 77k $384k (exactly $384,130) oyasumi Workshop
Beach Invasion 1945 - Pacific older $9.99 255 78% 7.7k $76k (exactly $76,424) AIx2 Games
Air Twister older $24.99 101 93% 3.0k $76k (exactly $75,720) YS NET
閃攻機人アスラ - ASURA THE STRIKER - $14.99 145 91% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) LeftOver
NIGHT STRIKER GEAR $18.99 94 88% 2.8k $54k (exactly $53,552) M2 Co., Ltd., M2 Co.,LTD
Operation Night Strikers $24.99 48 77% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) M2 Co., Ltd.
Astrodogs older $12.99 71 80% 2.1k $28k (exactly $27,669) Dynamic Media Triad
Banzai Escape older $6.99 101 72% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) XenoAisam
Candy Rangers $14.99 30 86% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Mechano
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
Unit Down Charge $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Randy Becker
Grid Ranger $3.99 32 84% 960 $3.8k (exactly $3,830) Pixeljam
Furball Over the Front $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Page Blue House
Soviet Tide Arising! $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Page Blue House
lone shadow $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) AA Mini Games Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.