Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Naval Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Combat Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Naval Combat

Only 5 developers shipped a Naval Combat Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DAVY x JONES, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×8.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $1.5k. 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 17 announced, ×8.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Naval Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Naval Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $446 (exactly $446)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,097)
Top 5% $210k (exactly $209,943)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 28
Announced 17
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Naval Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 8,835 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 17 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Boat Crew · EA older $24.99 431 89% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Tabbing Tabby
Waves of Steel older $19.99 408 90% 12k $245k (exactly $244,678) TMA Games LLC
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Ace of Seafood older $11.99 526 91% 16k $189k (exactly $189,202) Calappa Games
Beach Invasion 1945 - Pacific older $9.99 255 78% 7.7k $76k (exactly $76,424) AIx2 Games
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
1971: Indian Naval Front older $14.99 57 68% 1.7k $26k (exactly $25,633) Neosphere Interactive Studios
Boaty Tanks older $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) EpiXR Games UG
Boaty Tanks 2 older $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) EpiXR Games UG
Tigershark $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) N-Space
sea fight $0.99 15 80% 450 $446 (exactly $446) YU BO
Battleships Simulator · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.