Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Simulation game?

Simulation + Mystery Dungeon

Of 57 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 67 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 67 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $5.5k → $3.6k → $1.4k → $898 → $3.2k → $299 (still earning) → $120k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,084)
Top 5% $229k (exactly $228,742)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 148
Announced 67
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Dungeon Crawler, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,831 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Goblin Cleanup · EA $19.99 1,615 87% 48k $969k (exactly $968,515) Crisalu Games
Vivid Knight older $14.99 1,635 89% 49k $735k (exactly $735,260) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
The Backrooms: Survival older $9.99 881 82% 26k $264k (exactly $264,036) RE:CODE
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure 2 older $24.99 342 89% 10k $256k (exactly $256,397) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer $4.99 1,528 78% 46k $229k (exactly $228,742) AZAMATIKA
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
Legacy of Defense $7.99 545 72% 16k $131k (exactly $130,636) Enter the Game Studios
Dungeon Dreams 2 older $19.99 209 90% 6.3k $125k (exactly $125,337) DDreams Games
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Hero in an All-Forgiving Fantasy World RPG $16.99 74 74% 2.2k $38k (exactly $37,718) INAZUMA GAMES
Lost in the World of Succubi $13.99 66 81% 2.0k $28k (exactly $27,700) Shimofumi-ya
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
The Lustful Inn of Female Adventurers $9.99 81 76% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) StudioVR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.