Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Multiple Endings

Of 27 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×6.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×135 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 85 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 85 announced, ×6.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $1.5k → $13k → $22k → $31k → $20k → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $597 (exactly $597)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,177)
Top 5% $202k (exactly $201,915)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 87
Announced 85
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Multiple Endings; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 9,186 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Senren*Banka older $34.99 33,721 98% 1.0M $35M (exactly $35,396,934) YUZUSOFT
Alpha Protocol™ older $19.99 3,420 83% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,050,974) Obsidian Entertainment
Them and Us older $39.99 1,216 76% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,835) TendoGames Co., Ltd.
Star Control®: Origins older $19.99 2,067 74% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,239,580) Stardock Entertainment
Haydee 2 older $24.99 1,649 87% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,236,255) Haydee Interactive
Hollowbody older $16.99 1,467 84% 44k $748k (exactly $747,730) Headware Games
Resident Evil 3 Nemesis (1999) $9.99 2,329 89% 70k $698k (exactly $698,001) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Resident Evil 2 (1998) $9.99 2,084 90% 63k $625k (exactly $624,575) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Resident Evil (1996) $9.99 1,602 90% 48k $480k (exactly $480,119) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Heaven Dust 2 older $14.99 771 90% 23k $347k (exactly $346,719) One Gruel Studio
Dino Crisis $9.99 947 80% 28k $284k (exactly $283,816) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Dino Crisis 2 $9.99 709 87% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Heartworm $14.99 449 86% 13k $202k (exactly $201,915) Vincent Adinolfi
閃攻機人アスラ - ASURA THE STRIKER - $14.99 145 91% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) LeftOver
Many Nights a Whisper $2.99 699 94% 21k $63k (exactly $62,700) Deconstructeam, Selkie Harbour
NIGHT STRIKER GEAR $18.99 94 88% 2.8k $54k (exactly $53,552) M2 Co., Ltd., M2 Co.,LTD
Dusk Pub $12.99 128 92% 3.8k $50k (exactly $49,882) YellowDuckWorks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.