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Should I ship a Multiple Endings Outbreak Sim?
Outbreak Sim + Multiple Endings
Only 16 developers shipped a Multiple Endings Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, No, I'm not a Human, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $12M, ×25772 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $148 (exactly $148) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $74k (exactly $73,814) |
| Top 5% | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 26 |
| Announced | 30 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Outbreak Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Outbreak Sim, Multiple Endings; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Simulation
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 28,363 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Outbreak Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RTSFair
- + ZombiesFair
- + Real Time TacticsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Survival HorrorFair
- + Sci-fiLong shot
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + ManagementPoor odds
- + Resource ManagementPoor odds
- + Life SimPoor odds
- + Time ManagementPoor odds
Comparable games
No, I'm not a Human 2025 · $12M 
Broken Lines 2020 · $453k 
MOLDRISE 2026 · $175k 
Rogue AI Simulator 2023 · $131k 
Welcome Back, Commander 2025 · $103k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | No, I'm not a Human | $14.99 | 27,222 93% | 817k | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) | Trioskaz | |
| | Broken Lines | older | $24.99 | 604 76% | 18k | $453k (exactly $452,819) | BirdIsland/PortaPlay |
| | MOLDRISE | $11.99 | 486 96% | 15k | $175k (exactly $174,814) | Raffaele Picca | |
| | Rogue AI Simulator | older | $11.99 | 364 82% | 11k | $131k (exactly $130,931) | Nerdook Productions |
| | Welcome Back, Commander | $14.99 | 230 80% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $103,431) | S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L. | |
 | Quarantineer | older | $9.99 | 307 80% | 9.2k | $92k (exactly $92,008) | Papaonn |
 | Survivor's Notes | $6.99 | 352 91% | 11k | $74k (exactly $73,814) | MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY | |
 | Lost Harem | older | $4.99 | 43 39% | 1.3k | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) | Nonahki |
 | Day Zero | · EA | $4.99 | 39 79% | 1.2k | $5.8k (exactly $5,838) | Imdie Studios |
 | The Book of Plagues | $6.99 | 17 94% | 510 | $3.6k (exactly $3,565) | DiaMMax Games | |
 | Augmented Fear | $9.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) | OneFurInTheBox | |
 | The Long Winter: I Am Not an Animal | $7.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | Playnova | |
 | Dead Hourz | $1.99 | 5 40% | 150 | $298 (exactly $298) | Raycand Games | |
 | THE BEST INVESTOR | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | THE FRENCH GRINDER |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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