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Should I ship a Fantasy MMORPG?
MMORPG + Fantasy
Of 27 developers who shipped a paid Fantasy MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 232 more are announced, ×12 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $61k, ×45 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 232 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $4.2k (exactly $4,200) |
|---|---|
| Median | $61k (exactly $61,139) |
| Top 25% | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) |
| Top 5% | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 27 |
| Released games | 328 |
| Announced | 232 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 77%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Character Customization
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 69% positive over 43,114 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 5 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 232 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×12 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
Comparable games
Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M 
Last Epoch 2024 · $112M 
Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014 · $47M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Last Epoch | older | $34.99 | 106,364 76% | 3.2M | $112M (exactly $111,650,291) | Eleventh Hour Games |
| | Diablo® IV | older | $49.99 | 58,668 69% | 1.8M | $88M (exactly $87,984,400) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | FINAL FANTASY XIV Online | older | $19.99 | 78,661 86% | 2.4M | $47M (exactly $47,173,002) | Square Enix |
 | Black Desert | older | $9.99 | 63,052 75% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,896,684) | Pearl Abyss |
 | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet | older | $19.99 | 15,461 79% | 464k | $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) | Dimps Corporation |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen | · EA | $39.99 | 4,829 72% | 145k | $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) | Visionary Realms |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | Project: Gorgon | $24.99 | 4,704 81% | 141k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) | Elder Game, LLC | |
 | SpiritVale | · EA | $14.99 | 4,755 48% | 143k | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) | Baikun Interactive |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
 | Stars Reach | · EA | $29.99 | 322 52% | 9.7k | $290k (exactly $289,703) | Playable Worlds, Inc. |
 | Lugh World | · EA | $14.99 | 458 68% | 14k | $206k (exactly $205,963) | Lughsoft |
 | Embers Adrift | $19.99 | 240 69% | 7.2k | $144k (exactly $143,928) | Stormhaven Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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