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Should I ship a Magic MMORPG?
MMORPG + Magic
Only 11 developers shipped a paid Magic MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pax Dei, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 109 more are announced, ×16 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $110k, ×82 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $25k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 109 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $25k (exactly $24,689) |
|---|---|
| Median | $111k (exactly $110,589) |
| Top 25% | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) |
| Top 5% | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 112 |
| Announced | 109 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 69%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 58% positive over 25,365 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $25k. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×16 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
Comparable games
Last Epoch 2024 · $112M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014 · $47M 
Black Desert 2017 · $19M 
Mortal Online 2 2022 · $13M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Last Epoch | older | $34.99 | 106,364 76% | 3.2M | $112M (exactly $111,650,291) | Eleventh Hour Games |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | FINAL FANTASY XIV Online | older | $19.99 | 78,661 86% | 2.4M | $47M (exactly $47,173,002) | Square Enix |
| | Black Desert | older | $9.99 | 63,052 75% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,896,684) | Pearl Abyss |
| | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Dark and Light | · EA older | $17.99 | 10,577 51% | 317k | $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) | Snail Games USA |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | Citadel: Forged with Fire | older | $14.99 | 5,004 67% | 150k | $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) | Blue Isle Studios |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® | |
 | Embers Adrift | $19.99 | 240 69% | 7.2k | $144k (exactly $143,928) | Stormhaven Studios | |
 | Camelot Unchained | · EA | $9.99 | 369 38% | 11k | $111k (exactly $110,589) | Unchained Entertainment |
 | Gnome Online | $17.99 | 124 73% | 3.7k | $67k (exactly $66,923) | H-Production | |
 | The Story Page | · EA | $7.99 | 103 78% | 3.1k | $25k (exactly $24,689) | SPR-Games |
 | Swordia | $4.99 | 5 40% | 150 | $748 (exactly $748) | Affliction Networks LLC | |
 | Mythic Manager | · EA | $9.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | Oracle Algorithms |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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