Do I ship it?

Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval MMORPG?

MMORPG + Medieval

Only 13 developers shipped a paid Medieval MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pax Dei, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 113 more are announced, ×10 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×7.6 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 113 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 113 announced, ×10 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $897 → $49k (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,200)
Median $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 25% $144k (exactly $143,928)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 115
Announced 113
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 450% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 70%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 23,357 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×10 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Desert 2017 · $19M Myth of Empires 2024 · $14M Mortal Online 2 2022 · $13M Pax Dei 2025 · $6.4M Dark and Light 2017 · EA · $5.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
Mortal Online 2 older $39.99 11,103 59% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Star Vault AB
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Dark and Light · EA older $17.99 10,577 51% 317k $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) Snail Games USA
Life is Feudal: Your Own older $19.99 8,804 65% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,279,759) Bitbox Ltd.
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
Wurm Unlimited older $29.99 1,879 72% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Code Club AB
Wild Terra 2: New Lands older $39.99 1,379 62% 41k $1.7M (exactly $1,654,386) Juvty Worlds
Embers Adrift $19.99 240 69% 7.2k $144k (exactly $143,928) Stormhaven Studios
Camelot Unchained · EA $9.99 369 38% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) Unchained Entertainment
Past Fate · EA $19.99 81 43% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) Icy North Games
Guilds of Mountgate · EA $9.99 34 82% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Beaver Fever Games
Upgradia · EA $9.99 32 65% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Mytharia
The Auto Sort Is Broken $2.99 93 80% 2.8k $8.3k (exactly $8,342) Fractal Projects
Legends of Aria Eternal $20.00 7 71% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,200) Emergent Worlds

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.