Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Simulation game?

Simulation + Mining

Of 241 developers who shipped a Mining Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 368 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1076 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 368 games are announced against 170 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 368 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 241
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $22k → $22k → $6.5k → $2.8k → $6.3k → $3.9k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 241
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,816)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $46,262)
Top 5% $676k (exactly $675,704)
Developers, 2 yr 241
Released games 435
Announced 368
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Mining; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Resource Management, Crafting
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 88,789 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 368 games are announced against 170 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Hydroneer older $14.99 27,131 85% 814k $12M (exactly $12,200,811) Foulball Hangover
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Gold Mining Simulator older $19.99 15,132 72% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,074,660) Code Horizon
Luma Island $19.99 11,204 84% 336k $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) Feel Free Games
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
A Game About Feeding A Black Hole $6.99 3,467 88% 104k $727k (exactly $727,030) Aarimous, Thornity
Digseum $2.99 8,033 97% 241k $721k (exactly $720,560) Rat Monthly

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.