Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Mini Golf

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mini Golf Simulation game?

Simulation + Mini Golf

Only 14 developers shipped a Mini Golf Simulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tower Unite, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $270. Revenue is flat on the market; 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 12 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Mini Golf
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $1.8k → $1.0k → $959 → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Mini Golf: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 44
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mini Golf
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Mini Golf; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Golf, Physics
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 16,566 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $960, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Golf With Your Friends older $14.99 50,748 88% 1.5M $23M (exactly $22,821,376) Blacklight Interactive, Team17
Tower Unite $19.99 16,237 89% 487k $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) PixelTail Games
Golf It! older $8.99 24,695 90% 741k $6.7M (exactly $6,660,242) Perfuse Entertainment
WHAT THE GOLF? older $19.99 4,324 93% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,103) Triband
GolfTopia older $19.99 477 95% 14k $286k (exactly $286,057) MinMax Games Ltd.
Golf Around! older $9.99 823 94% 25k $247k (exactly $246,653) Hough Studio
Mini Golf Arena · EA older $8.99 385 51% 12k $104k (exactly $103,834) Evoluta Studio
Puttler $7.99 244 95% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,487) Bean Juice Studios
Vertiginous Golf older $9.99 113 62% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,866) Kinelco & Lone Elk Creative
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
Golf Around 2 $7.99 12 41% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Hough Studio
Disc Frenzy $14.99 6 100% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) SupraOrbital Studios
Swingularity $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Team Redshift
Ping Pan $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Stonework Games LLC
Bow Course - Archery Golf · EA $11.99 2 50% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Korpi Games Oy
Roll'N With Da Punchez $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Kamatayan Workz
Bonds of Zeniarai $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) KIMIDORI SOFT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.