Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Metroidvania

Only 7 developers shipped a Metroidvania Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Haydee 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $5.4k against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 20 announced, ×6.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $56,681)
Top 5% $289k (exactly $288,804)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 25
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Metroidvania
Price point
$16.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 61,606 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.4k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.4k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Haydee older $14.99 6,226 84% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,799,832) Haydee Interactive
ReCore: Definitive Edition older $19.99 1,441 62% 43k $864k (exactly $864,168) Armature Studio, LLC, Comcept
Shadow Man Remastered older $19.99 1,368 94% 41k $820k (exactly $820,390) Nightdive Studios, Acclaim Studios Tees… (Nightdive Studios, Acclaim Studios Teesside)
Escape Dead Island older $14.99 1,261 60% 38k $567k (exactly $567,072) Fatshark
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
Recompile older $19.99 145 67% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Phigames
Tamarin older $29.99 78 60% 2.3k $70k (exactly $70,177) Chameleon Games
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
Dad Quest older $12.99 101 86% 3.0k $39k (exactly $39,360) Sundae Month
Maseylia : Echoes of the Past $16.99 61 80% 1.8k $31k (exactly $31,092) Sol Brothers
Virballs $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Bolder Games, Chimera Studios
Scurge: Hive $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Orbital Media
Besitupia: Mediator $5.99 11 81% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) Oppressive HellMode
cultivation of the strong $24.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) PengStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.