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Should I ship a Metroidvania Simulation game?
Simulation + Metroidvania
Only 16 developers shipped a Metroidvania Simulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $32k, ×51 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1000 the market median. Revenue is up 500% on the market; 35 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.8k (exactly $3,838) |
|---|---|
| Median | $32k (exactly $32,094) |
| Top 25% | $184k (exactly $184,377) |
| Top 5% | $628k (exactly $628,231) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 51 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 500% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Metroidvania
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Metroidvania; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 4,280 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Rain World 2017 · $35M 
F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch 2021 · $3.2M 
Castlevania Anniversary Collection 2019 · $1.1M 
Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon 2026 · $628k 
BIOMORPH 2024 · $385k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rain World | older | $24.99 | 46,871 94% | 1.4M | $35M (exactly $35,139,189) | Videocult |
| | F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch | older | $15.99 | 6,660 86% | 200k | $3.2M (exactly $3,194,802) | TiGames |
| | Castlevania Anniversary Collection | older | $19.99 | 1,798 80% | 54k | $1.1M (exactly $1,078,261) | KONAMI |
| | Goblin Vyke: The Thief Tycoon | $14.99 | 1,397 70% | 42k | $628k (exactly $628,231) | Art Thieves | |
| | BIOMORPH | older | $19.99 | 642 91% | 19k | $385k (exactly $385,007) | Lucid Dreams Studio |
 | 3dSen PC | $14.99 | 524 91% | 16k | $236k (exactly $235,643) | Geod Studio | |
 | Strange Seed | $14.99 | 431 86% | 13k | $194k (exactly $193,821) | Chronicle Games Ltd | |
 | Pinball Spire | $14.99 | 410 84% | 12k | $184k (exactly $184,377) | Apparition Games | |
 | Superhero Simulator | · EA | $5.99 | 867 73% | 26k | $156k (exactly $155,800) | mightyraccoon! Studios |
 | Rhell: Warped Worlds & Troubled Times | $14.99 | 243 96% | 7.3k | $109k (exactly $109,277) | SlugGlove | |
 | Kentum | $17.99 | 172 75% | 5.2k | $93k (exactly $92,828) | Tlön Industries | |
 | Welcome to Planet E1d0r4d0! | $8.99 | 119 68% | 3.6k | $32k (exactly $32,094) | LuluGames | |
 | Lost in the World of Succubi | $13.99 | 66 81% | 2.0k | $28k (exactly $27,700) | Shimofumi-ya | |
 | Space Sprouts | $10.99 | 51 96% | 1.5k | $17k (exactly $16,815) | Schleuder Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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