Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Medical Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medical Sim Simulation game?

Simulation + Medical Sim

Of 73 developers who shipped a Medical Sim Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×566 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 132 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 132 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Medical Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $40k → $2.7k → $11k → $19k → $1.4k → $3.8k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Medical Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,162)
Top 5% $356k (exactly $355,622)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 199
Announced 132
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Medical Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Medical Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Life Sim, Choices Matter, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 6,279 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Two Point Hospital older $29.99 26,638 92% 799k $24M (exactly $23,966,209) Two Point Studios
Project Hospital older $24.99 8,387 89% 252k $6.3M (exactly $6,287,734) Oxymoron Games
The Mortuary Assistant older $24.99 7,269 92% 218k $5.4M (exactly $5,449,569) DarkStone Digital
112 Operator older $24.99 5,688 88% 171k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) Jutsu Games
Surgeon Simulator older $9.99 13,796 82% 414k $4.1M (exactly $4,134,661) Bossa Studios
Let's School older $19.99 5,887 92% 177k $3.5M (exactly $3,530,434) Pathea Games
Surgeon Simulator 2 older $19.99 2,033 44% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,219,190) Bossa Studios
Bio Inc. Redemption older $12.99 3,051 87% 92k $1.2M (exactly $1,188,975) DryGin Studios
Big Pharma older $24.99 1,443 78% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,817) Twice Circled
Autopsy Simulator older $24.99 1,337 49% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,349) Woodland Games
Ambulance Life: A Paramedic Simulator $29.99 993 50% 30k $893k (exactly $893,402) Aesir Interactive
Do No Harm $15.99 896 74% 27k $430k (exactly $429,811) Darts Games
Potion Tycoon $19.99 629 71% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Snowhound Games
Night Shift Nurses $19.99 593 84% 18k $356k (exactly $355,622) Shiravune
BM General Hospital $7.99 1,368 86% 41k $328k (exactly $327,910) zzzgame
CURE - A Hospital Simulator · EA $9.99 830 86% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Sentinel Games
SKETCHY MASSAGE $10.99 438 85% 13k $144k (exactly $144,409) OZ WORKS
Emergency Room Simulator $24.99 154 43% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Caipirinha Games
Real Feel $19.99 170 64% 5.1k $102k (exactly $101,949) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator $12.99 208 59% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) Zeitglas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.