Games › Simulation › Simulation + Match 3
Should I ship a Match 3 Simulation game?
Simulation + Match 3
Of 41 developers who shipped a Match 3 Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60. Revenue is down 30% on the market, with 28 games announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $60 (exactly $60) |
|---|---|
| Median | $356 (exactly $356) |
| Top 25% | $2.7k (exactly $2,695) |
| Top 5% | $68k (exactly $68,332) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 202 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Match 3
- effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Match 3; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Puzzle, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $3.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,447 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
HuniePop 2: Double Date 2021 · $4.9M 
Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2024 · $336k 
Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2 2025 · $117k 
Hentai Asmodeus 2019 · $105k 
Sex and the Furry Titty 3: Come Inside, Sweety 2024 · $97k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | HuniePop 2: Double Date | older | $19.99 | 8,149 91% | 244k | $4.9M (exactly $4,886,955) | HuniePot |
| | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen | older | $3.99 | 2,807 93% | 84k | $336k (exactly $335,998) | Hue Axis Entertainment |
| | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2 | $9.99 | 389 93% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
| | Hentai Asmodeus | older | $1.99 | 1,757 83% | 53k | $105k (exactly $104,893) | HEGA Studio |
| | Sex and the Furry Titty 3: Come Inside, Sweety | older | $9.99 | 325 92% | 9.8k | $97k (exactly $97,402) | Furlough Games |
 | PumPum | older | $3.99 | 693 74% | 21k | $83k (exactly $82,952) | Shmoops Games |
 | Fake Hostel | older | $4.99 | 503 60% | 15k | $75k (exactly $75,299) | Romantic Room |
 | Mythmatch | $19.99 | 124 98% | 3.7k | $74k (exactly $74,363) | Team Artichoke | |
 | Hentai Stories | $9.99 | 228 83% | 6.8k | $68k (exactly $68,332) | Horny Capybara Studio | |
 | Art Reborn: Painting Connoisseur | older | $6.99 | 303 94% | 9.1k | $64k (exactly $63,539) | MuccyGames |
 | Neon Village | $9.99 | 146 86% | 4.4k | $44k (exactly $43,756) | Encraft | |
 | Ink Reverie | $9.99 | 146 74% | 4.4k | $44k (exactly $43,756) | Rolling Cat Studio | |
 | Hyperborea: Hornysolation | $4.99 | 164 73% | 4.9k | $25k (exactly $24,551) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | Path of Dao | $3.99 | 149 93% | 4.5k | $18k (exactly $17,835) | 梦鲸工作室 | |
 | Tasty Bite: Food dating simulator | $6.99 | 63 95% | 1.9k | $13k (exactly $13,211) | DuckMemeticsGames | |
 | Naughty Store Manager | $11.99 | 27 33% | 810 | $9.7k (exactly $9,712) | eroverse | |
 | Matchmaker: Dungeon Heart | $19.99 | 11 81% | 330 | $6.6k (exactly $6,597) | Ghost Moth |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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