Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Loot

Of 40 developers who shipped a Loot Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $12M, ×8030 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 85 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 85 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $599 → $2.9k → $2.5k → $959 → $3.6k (still earning) → $85k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,479)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $12,028,936)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 83
Announced 85
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Loot; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Online Co-Op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 121,481 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $12M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Risk of Rain 2 2020 · $180M Megabonk 2025 · $30M Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 2023 · $29M OUTRIDERS 2021 · $28M EVERSPACE™ 2 2023 · $18M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Risk of Rain 2 older $24.99 240,001 93% 7.2M $180M (exactly $179,928,750) Hopoo Games
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
OUTRIDERS older $19.99 46,146 66% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,673,756) People Can Fly
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
DAEMON X MACHINA older $49.99 6,172 85% 185k $9.3M (exactly $9,256,148) Marvelous Inc.
SurrounDead · EA older $11.99 24,538 91% 736k $8.8M (exactly $8,826,319) Zurvivor
DeadPoly · EA older $9.99 5,384 78% 162k $1.6M (exactly $1,613,585) TFL Games
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games
Dark Hunting Ground $12.99 771 92% 23k $300k (exactly $300,459) BingX
Dark Light: Survivor · EA $16.99 346 75% 10k $176k (exactly $176,356) Mirari&Co.
RIG Riot $19.99 195 94% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Sage Boatman
Not Quite Dead: Open World Survival · EA $12.99 218 61% 6.5k $85k (exactly $84,955) Voidecho Studio
Dustland · EA $22.99 100 69% 3.0k $69k (exactly $68,970) RedPad Games
The Last Citadel $14.99 70 85% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,479) Honest Demon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.