Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Logic

Only 16 developers shipped a Logic Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Brickadia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 190% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $3.6k → $299 → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $761k (exactly $761,019)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,017 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Brickadia · EA $19.99 1,269 81% 38k $761k (exactly $761,019) Brickadia, LLC
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
Welcome to Doll Town $4.99 351 42% 11k $53k (exactly $52,545) Bad Wish Games
Zombodesert older $49.99 12 91% 360 $18k (exactly $17,996) Gamesforgames
Mess Adventures 2 older $4.99 86 81% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,874) Marvelous Games
Lost Islands older $34.99 10 20% 300 $10k (exactly $10,497) Glitch Studio
Deadblast older $9.99 15 86% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Gamesforgames
Skuf vs beer bottle party $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
Sofie: The Echoes™ $4.99 24 62% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Working Game Studio Ltd.
Stopping Move $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Gamesforgames
Besitupia: Mediator $5.99 11 81% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) Oppressive HellMode
IntelRoach $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Chernoknizhnikov Ilya
Prophecrawl $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Michael Richard Lannon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.