Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Local Multiplayer

Of 25 developers who shipped a Local Multiplayer Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 18 developers shipped in the last year and 39 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $3.1k → $449 → $1.5k → $510 (still earning) → $238 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $950 (exactly $950)
Top 5% $722k (exactly $721,579)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 96
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Local Multiplayer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Co-Op, Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 5,366 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $950, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
HYPERCHARGE: Unboxed older $24.99 3,798 90% 114k $2.8M (exactly $2,847,361) Digital Cybercherries
Destroy All Humans! 2 - Reprobed older $39.99 2,271 79% 68k $2.7M (exactly $2,724,519) Black Forest Games
Star Control®: Origins older $19.99 2,067 74% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,239,580) Stardock Entertainment
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Onirism $17.99 1,337 82% 40k $722k (exactly $721,579) Crimson Tales
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Thunder Wolves older $9.99 446 84% 13k $134k (exactly $133,666) Most Wanted Entertainment
Endgame: Road To Salvation · EA older $11.99 156 97% 4.7k $56k (exactly $56,113) Indie/Anon Games
Wild Ice $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Journey Bound Games
Dragon Blaze $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Zerodiv
Guise vs Guise $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) XINGXIAN NET
Recess $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Lost Echoes Interactive
Romania Prop Hunt $0.99 32 96% 960 $950 (exactly $950) Street Art Studios
Outlanders - Exiles of Veridion $14.33 2 0% 60 $860 (exactly $860) Solo Game Dev
Wendigo Land : Survive The Legend · EA $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Apinat Studios
TURBOCIDE · EA $16.99 1 100% 30 $510 (exactly $510) SlovGoblin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.