Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Local Co-Op

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Co-Op Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Local Co-Op

Of 24 developers who shipped a Local Co-Op Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×1374 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Local Co-Op
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $2.6k → $538 → $599 → $450 → $722k → $0 (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Local Co-Op: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,986)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 96
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Local Co-Op; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Co-op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 11,899 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resident Evil 6 older $19.99 51,420 77% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,836,574) Capcom
Resident Evil 5 older $19.99 48,521 87% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,098,044) Capcom
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 5 older $59.99 9,375 93% 281k $17M (exactly $16,872,188) SANDLOT
Resident Evil Revelations 2 older $19.99 25,446 78% 763k $15M (exactly $15,259,966) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Plants vs. Zombies: Battle for Neighborville™ older $29.99 15,372 71% 461k $14M (exactly $13,830,188) PopCap
MADNESS: Project Nexus older $24.99 15,977 97% 479k $12M (exactly $11,977,957) GIBBING TREE, LLC
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 4.1 The Shadow of New Despair older $19.99 7,776 95% 233k $4.7M (exactly $4,663,267) SANDLOT
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Onirism $17.99 1,337 82% 40k $722k (exactly $721,579) Crimson Tales
The Left Behind $10.99 116 23% 3.5k $38k (exactly $38,245) Extrude
Operation Night Strikers $24.99 48 77% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) M2 Co., Ltd.
Lurking Danger $11.99 49 65% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,625) Farelas
Wild Ice $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Journey Bound Games
Dragon Blaze $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Zerodiv
Sidewalk Simulator · EA $3.99 22 95% 660 $2.6k (exactly $2,633) XCCWARE LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.