Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Life Sim

Only 16 developers shipped a Life Sim Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sex Trainer's Diary: Hidden Kink, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 110% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $980 → $539 → $10k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,329)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $110,345)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 42
Announced 32
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Life Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Immersive Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Comedy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 435 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $630, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
CUSTOM MECH WARS older $49.99 563 41% 17k $844k (exactly $844,331) D3PUBLISHER
Sex Trainer's Diary: Hidden Kink $19.99 184 70% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) 老二打鐵舖, 072 Localize, NOVA CONCEPT
Tru Or Die older $9.99 336 52% 10k $101k (exactly $100,699) Tru Hunnit
ScrewUp older $9.99 259 68% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) 199 Cents STUDIO
Sex Shop Simulator: Sinful Girls $7.99 57 43% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Bits, Bytes & Sins
Valand older $7.99 54 59% 1.6k $13k (exactly $12,944) LOMS Studio
Apartment Story $7.00 55 94% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,550) Blue Rider Interactive
Casino Boss Simulator $4.99 69 56% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Nons Games
Organic Burger Simulator · EA $14.99 12 58% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Mehmet Bilici, Hüseyin Doğan
Money Theft 3 Last Mission $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
The Isolated · EA $0.99 33 66% 990 $980 (exactly $980) STuNT
Cockroach Simulation $6.99 3 0% 90 $629 (exactly $629) WIZWIN
牛马模拟器 · EA $5.99 3 33% 90 $539 (exactly $539) BossyuGames
Big Theft Valkeala 2: San Piritori $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.