Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Simulation game?

Simulation + Life Sim

Of 1,631 developers who shipped a Life Sim Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,707 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1205 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 2,707 games are announced against 1,039 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 2,707 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,631
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $7.2k → $5.0k → $7.8k → $9.3k → $5.7k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,631
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,780)
Top 5% $757k (exactly $757,042)
Developers, 2 yr 1,631
Released games 3,714
Announced 2,707
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Life Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 411,976 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 817 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,707 games are announced against 1,039 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Crime Scene Cleaner older $29.99 32,469 98% 974k $29M (exactly $29,212,359) President Studio
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Wobbly Life $24.99 33,034 97% 991k $25M (exactly $24,765,590) RubberBandGames
Paralives · EA $39.99 20,123 89% 604k $24M (exactly $24,141,563) Alex Massé and team
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.