Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Otome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Otome Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Otome

Of 24 developers who shipped an Otome Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×7.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×149 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Otome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $69k → $7.8k → $15k → $1.0k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Otome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $3.4k (exactly $3,358)
Median $11k (exactly $11,228)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $44,908)
Top 5% $223k (exactly $223,144)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 65
Announced 30
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Otome; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Visual Novel, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Comedy, Funny, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,579 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.4k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.4k. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD))
Arcadia Fallen older $24.99 504 94% 15k $378k (exactly $377,849) Galdra Studios
Bewitching Sinners older $17.99 513 94% 15k $277k (exactly $276,866) Miss Xero
INtLOVErt Game Club $39.99 186 96% 5.6k $223k (exactly $223,144) じょせふ
Trap of MUSK:Europe Night older $29.99 204 67% 6.1k $184k (exactly $183,539) IDEA FACTORY, Frontier Works
Salty Hounds · EA older $19.99 253 73% 7.6k $152k (exactly $151,724) Topping Palette
Arcadia Fallen II $29.99 165 98% 5.0k $148k (exactly $148,450) Galdra Studios
撩妹模拟器:渣男的秘密 older $6.99 491 83% 15k $103k (exactly $102,963) DeerRiver
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
lovebyte.exe · EA $11.99 253 96% 7.6k $91k (exactly $91,004) Nochi Studios
ChuChu $13.99 107 89% 3.2k $45k (exactly $44,908) 爱的氧气罐制作组
Andromeda Six · EA $14.99 95 96% 2.9k $43k (exactly $42,722) Wanderlust Games
Phantom of the Twilight $18.99 67 77% 2.0k $38k (exactly $38,170) Lumiere Entertainment Inc.
Lover's Enigma $11.99 98 87% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) FallenCranberry Studio
Princess Paradise $19.99 53 73% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) サキュレント

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.