Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Word Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Word Game Otome?

Otome + Word Game

Of 22 developers who shipped a Word Game Otome in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×54 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×12777 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 54.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Word Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $34k → $7.0k → $240 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Word Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,469)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,762)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 45
Announced 34
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Otome, Word Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Interactive Fiction, Dating Sim, Multiple Endings
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 16,869 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced
  12. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds117 devs · median $5.8k · 199 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Yoshiwara Higanbana older $44.99 425 90% 13k $574k (exactly $573,622) MariaCrown
Psychedelica of the Ashen Hawk older $29.99 600 84% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) IDEA FACTORY
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
Lost in Secular Love older $9.99 500 86% 15k $150k (exactly $149,850) YETU GAME
风起长安:驭骨人 older $13.99 278 80% 8.3k $117k (exactly $116,677) 轻梨工作室
與魔共舞 older $44.99 39 82% 1.2k $53k (exactly $52,638) Rejet
像素男友 语音完整版 older $3.99 414 97% 12k $50k (exactly $49,556) HIROKO IMAKI
ChuChu $13.99 107 89% 3.2k $45k (exactly $44,908) 爱的氧气罐制作组
The Dawning Letters -Sunrise- $6.99 161 95% 4.8k $34k (exactly $33,762) 戏幻言制作组
Princess Paradise $19.99 53 73% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) サキュレント
搜查一刻 $9.99 29 68% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Yai
The happiness of maggots $4.99 47 89% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) 君羊
游郭惊梦 $9.99 23 82% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) 做完散伙制作组

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.