Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Otome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Otome RPG?

RPG + Otome

Of 58 developers who shipped an Otome RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1058 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 121 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 121 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Otome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $7.2k → $3.6k → $22k → $9.4k → $10k → $1.8k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Otome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,469)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,784)
Top 5% $665k (exactly $664,649)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 170
Announced 121
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Otome; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Visual Novel, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 13,064 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ken ga Kimi 2020 · $1.6M 月华辉映之刻 2025 · $1.5M My Vow to My Liege 2020 · $1.2M 灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 2025 · $1.1M Sensei! I Like You So Much! 2025 · $665k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ken ga Kimi older $49.99 1,065 93% 32k $1.6M (exactly $1,597,180) Rejet
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
My Vow to My Liege older $9.99 3,844 91% 115k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,047) YETU GAME
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Sensei! I Like You So Much! $16.99 1,304 86% 39k $665k (exactly $664,649) LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network… (LaoO Studio (Shanghai Ou Ou Xi Network Technology Co. LTD）)
Yoshiwara Higanbana older $44.99 425 90% 13k $574k (exactly $573,622) MariaCrown
Ten Trials of Babel: The Doppelganger Maze older $2.99 4,312 92% 129k $387k (exactly $386,786) 红渊
Arcadia Fallen older $24.99 504 94% 15k $378k (exactly $377,849) Galdra Studios
Magical Diary: Horse Hall older $14.99 708 93% 21k $318k (exactly $318,388) Hanako Games
Cinders older $19.99 494 87% 15k $296k (exactly $296,252) MoaCube
我的恋爱逃生攻略 Love to Live $9.99 864 85% 26k $259k (exactly $258,941) 番茄炖肉制作组
Touhou Blooming Soul · EA $5.99 911 96% 27k $164k (exactly $163,707) 二色幽紫蝶
The Silent Kingdom · EA $17.99 290 99% 8.7k $157k (exactly $156,513) Lucky Cat
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
Arcadia Fallen II $29.99 165 98% 5.0k $148k (exactly $148,450) Galdra Studios
暴杀残雨之夜 $6.00 779 98% 23k $140k (exactly $140,220) 茶斩刀制作组
Guardian of the Sacred Seal $19.99 123 96% 3.7k $74k (exactly $73,763) STUDIO SPUTNIK

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.