Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Otome?

Otome + Incremental

Only 12 developers shipped an Incremental Otome in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Only You, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×59 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $2.8k. Revenue is up 345% on the market; 11 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.2 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 59.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 345% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Otome + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $2.8k (exactly $2,848)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,036)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $151k (exactly $150,774)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 32
Announced 11
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 345% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Otome, Incremental
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,070 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  2. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  4. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  6. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  10. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  11. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced
  12. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds117 devs · median $5.8k · 199 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Only You $6.99 719 94% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 忘雪社
Embarrassed Shina-chan~ the Naked Wandering College Girl older $19.99 167 60% 5.0k $100k (exactly $100,150) かわいそうなのは抜ける
Andromeda Six · EA $14.99 95 96% 2.9k $43k (exactly $42,722) Wanderlust Games
NejicomiSimulator TMA01 older $12.99 100 76% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,970) やぶから堂, たまぷろじぇくと
Spirited Heart Deluxe older $19.99 54 46% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Winter Wolves
Lunar maiden, River-side Angel, and the Godlike moment older $10.99 74 86% 2.2k $24k (exactly $24,398) サキュレント
Salvus: Aries · EA $14.99 37 83% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Rosemilk Studio
Paper2Galgame · EA $5.99 75 88% 2.3k $13k (exactly $13,478) TamikiP
Sunny Beach Dolls · EA older $14.99 24 83% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Sweet Heaven
Love at The Milky Way Diner · EA $13.99 25 100% 750 $10k (exactly $10,492) Lucky Kim, Emanuelle Heikens
The happiness of maggots $4.99 47 89% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) 君羊
幻觉病理 $5.99 36 75% 1.1k $6.5k (exactly $6,469) 水仙肉桂
Saccharine Echo $4.99 27 85% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Neverliss
Love Cult $18.99 5 60% 150 $2.8k (exactly $2,848) Nochi Studios
Doki Doki: School of Muscular Finance $19.99 4 25% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) The Thinker Cat, Plumko, WeissGarden, J… (The Thinker Cat, Plumko, WeissGarden, Just Kidding Entertainment)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.