Do I ship it?

Games › Third-Person Shooter › Third-Person Shooter + JRPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a JRPG Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + JRPG

Only 11 developers shipped a JRPG Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $7.4k against a market of $1.5k. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 11 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + JRPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + JRPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $6.5k (exactly $6,475)
Median $7.4k (exactly $7,368)
Top 25% $500k (exactly $500,233)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 27
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 5,167 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.5k, median $7.4k, 1 in 4 over $500k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.5k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet 2018 · $9.3M Azur Lane Crosswave 2020 · $7.8M Little Witch Nobeta 2022 · $7.0M SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream 2024 · $3.6M Bullet Girls Phantasia 2020 · $651k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet older $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Little Witch Nobeta older $24.99 9,362 84% 281k $7.0M (exactly $7,018,691) Pupuya Games
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
Bullet Girls Phantasia older $29.99 724 82% 22k $651k (exactly $651,383) SHADE Inc.
Endless Alice · EA $8.99 2,307 91% 69k $622k (exactly $622,198) HowlingRain, 台灣響雨互娛, 響雨@OSAKA
Valkyrie of Phantasm $29.99 556 86% 17k $500k (exactly $500,233) AREAZERO
Neptunia Virtual Stars older $39.99 374 55% 11k $449k (exactly $448,688) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Touhou Mechanical Scrollery | 幻想討幻経 older $19.99 243 53% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) 巫女さん作法
Deadrock Redemption 2 $14.99 123 86% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Entropy Digital Entertainment
TOUHOU RHAPSODY OF MOON RABBIT · EA $9.99 47 82% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) 瓦尔基里游戏
DopePie Survivors 3D $5.99 41 92% 1.2k $7.4k (exactly $7,368) Dope Games
Captain Gazman Day Of The Rage $6.99 31 96% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Les Kalifas, Kazarma, VEB Videospielewe… (Les Kalifas, Kazarma, VEB Videospielewerk 'Bewegungsdruiden')
Guns of Succubus 2 $11.99 18 72% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) RakuRai
Money And Lady | 财貌双全 $9.99 20 35% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Happy DLC Studio
Miuratale · EA $12.99 3 66% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) Carrion Wave LLC, Studio Nemi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.