Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Investigation

Only 17 developers shipped an Investigation Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Sinking City 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $980, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 45 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 7215% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 7215% on the market, 45 announced, ×6.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $1.8k → $60 → $4.7k → $6.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $980 (exactly $980)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 45
Announced 45
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 7215% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Investigation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,995 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $980, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
Deadly Premonition: The Director's Cut older $24.99 3,243 65% 97k $2.4M (exactly $2,431,277) Rising Star Games
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Dread X Collection 4: The Hunt older $9.99 379 88% 11k $114k (exactly $113,586) DreadXP, David Szymanski, Christopher Y… (DreadXP, David Szymanski, Christopher Yabsley, KIRA, Philisophic Games, Dan McGrath, TorpleDook, Abbey 'Scruncho' Smith, Vidas Salavejus, Redact Games, Wayward Preacher, Mr. Pink, Aaron Wise)
Dustland · EA $22.99 100 69% 3.0k $69k (exactly $68,970) RedPad Games
Welcome to Doll Town $4.99 351 42% 11k $53k (exactly $52,545) Bad Wish Games
Evil Awaits™ $16.99 49 75% 1.5k $25k (exactly $24,975) Chai Games
ADK · EA older $44.99 7 28% 210 $9.4k (exactly $9,448) Rabbit Studios
Primeval Genesis · EA $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) After Hours Digital
The Dreaded Hut $11.99 17 94% 510 $6.1k (exactly $6,115) Gnaw Paw Studios
Sanguine · EA $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ryan Berg
Limb Chopper $9.99 6 16% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Jade Pixel Games
The Isolated · EA $0.99 33 66% 990 $980 (exactly $980) STuNT
Find Oann $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Ahldain Michael

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.