Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Simulation game?

Simulation + Idler

Of 1,198 developers who shipped an Idler Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,519 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,519 games are announced against 873 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 1,519 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,198
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.8k → $4.0k → $1.8k → $2.2k → $2.0k → $1.0k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,198
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,281)
Top 5% $174k (exactly $173,590)
Developers, 2 yr 1,198
Released games 2,241
Announced 1,519
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Idler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Management, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.30 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.30 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 80,635 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 448 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,519 games are announced against 873 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Cookie Clicker older $4.99 87,916 96% 2.6M $13M (exactly $13,161,025) Orteil, DashNet
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.