Games › Simulation › Simulation + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Simulation game?
Simulation + Heist
Of 38 developers who shipped a Heist Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4471 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 78 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.0k (exactly $1,977) |
| Top 25% | $42k (exactly $41,658) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 38 |
| Released games | 98 |
| Announced | 78 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Heist
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Action, Co-op
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 18,013 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
Teardown 2022 · $114M 
Crime Scene Cleaner 2024 · $29M 
Thief Simulator 2018 · $22M 
Hobo: Tough Life 2021 · $7.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
| | Crime Scene Cleaner | older | $29.99 | 32,469 98% | 974k | $29M (exactly $29,212,359) | President Studio |
| | Thief Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,377 88% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,414,987) | Noble Muffins |
| | Hobo: Tough Life | older | $29.99 | 8,679 84% | 260k | $7.8M (exactly $7,808,496) | Perun Creative |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | PAYDAY™ The Heist | older | $9.99 | 21,870 92% | 656k | $6.6M (exactly $6,554,439) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio. |
 | 112 Operator | older | $24.99 | 5,688 88% | 171k | $4.3M (exactly $4,264,294) | Jutsu Games |
 | Thief Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 6,568 87% | 197k | $3.9M (exactly $3,938,830) | CookieDev, Ultimate Games S.A. |
 | Crime Simulator | $14.99 | 6,244 82% | 187k | $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) | CookieDev | |
 | The Break-In | $19.99 | 2,040 87% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) | jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh | |
 | It's Only Money | $24.99 | 473 78% | 14k | $355k (exactly $354,608) | Usual Suspects Studios | |
 | Forensics: Crime Scene Detective | $24.99 | 288 62% | 8.6k | $216k (exactly $215,914) | Binary Impact, Alchemical Works | |
 | Laundering Simulator - Clean Cash and Laundry | $12.99 | 399 81% | 12k | $155k (exactly $155,490) | Ritual Interactive | |
 | Midnight Heist | $9.99 | 389 92% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | MediaTale | |
 | Thousand Hells: The Underworld Heists | $24.99 | 76 78% | 2.3k | $57k (exactly $56,977) | A Sharp | |
 | Dragon's Chronicles~暗黒大魔王と北斗の剣(つるぎ)~ | $12.99 | 128 85% | 3.8k | $50k (exactly $49,882) | スタジオあっとほ～む | |
 | SEX Police 🔞🚨 | $9.99 | 139 76% | 4.2k | $42k (exactly $41,658) | Play and Cum 💦 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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