Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Flight

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Flight Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Flight

Of 48 developers who shipped a Flight Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 93 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 350% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 93 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Flight
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $3.9k → $3.0k → $178 → $599 → $359 → $239 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Flight: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.8k (exactly $2,848)
Top 5% $112k (exactly $112,144)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 173
Announced 93
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Flight; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, PvE
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,542 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Valkyrie of Phantasm $29.99 556 86% 17k $500k (exactly $500,233) AREAZERO
Mirage Feathers older $4.99 2,566 98% 77k $384k (exactly $384,130) oyasumi Workshop
Galaxy on Fire 2™ Full HD older $7.99 1,479 77% 44k $355k (exactly $354,516) Fishlabs Entertainment GmbH
Flying Tigers: Shadows Over China older $14.99 695 69% 21k $313k (exactly $312,542) ACE MADDOX
Warhammer 40,000: Dakka Squadron - Flyboyz Edition older $19.99 416 78% 12k $249k (exactly $249,475) Phosphor Game Studios
Touhou Mechanical Scrollery | 幻想討幻経 older $19.99 243 53% 7.3k $146k (exactly $145,727) 巫女さん作法
War Tech Fighters older $19.99 228 74% 6.8k $137k (exactly $136,732) Drakkar Dev
Thunder Wolves older $9.99 446 84% 13k $134k (exactly $133,666) Most Wanted Entertainment
Gearbits older $9.99 442 96% 13k $132k (exactly $132,467) Quackpond Games
Birds of War $9.99 439 87% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) HexNest Games
BeastLink · EA $19.99 187 45% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) Grove Street Games
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
POLARIS™ $19.99 32 59% 960 $19k (exactly $19,190) POLARIS™ Team, Variable State
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
The Phoenix Gene VR $24.99 10 100% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) HEROmation
Tutien Path $14.99 16 81% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Truong Thanh Triet
Cosmo Tales · EA $19.99 11 81% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) Bohemia Interactive
Wings of Aviora · EA $24.99 8 87% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Stormy XP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.